It is unclear whether the slowdown in China's corn imports is due to lower demand or higher prices. So far in 2022, corn imports from China have been muted. La Nina is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society said in its recent forecast.Ĭhina emerged as one of the largest importers of corn in 20, but the country has been trying to reduce reliance on imports to feed local demand by increasing domestic production. La Nina weather effects have taken a toll on crop yields in the previous two seasons in Argentina as well, and the latest forecast shows this may continue for the rest of the year. Historically, the impact of La Nina on crops in Argentina has been more adverse and severe compared with its northern neighbor Brazil. Harvesting of this crop begins in April-May, while the late-corn crop is sown in December-January and harvested in June-July.Īgronomists have attributed the dry weather conditions to La Nina - a climate phenomenon that usually leads to dry weather conditions in southern South America. 28, compared with 16.8% a year ago due to drought, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in a report.Įarly-corn planting in Argentina begins in September, but the lack of sufficient rainfall may force farmers to delay planting this season. The early corn planting in Argentina is delayed with 5.8% of the forecast area sown as of Sept. The second-corn crop planting in Brazil, which accounts for the bulk of exports, will only arrive to the market in meaningful volumes in June 2023. You can't export what you don't have," said Pete Meyer, head of Grain, Oilseed and Advanced Feedstocks at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Even if Brazil has a bountiful harvest, the problems with Ukraine, the EU, and the US will mean that 2-3 years of good harvests globally will be needed before some sense of normalcy returns. "We believe that a lot is riding on the size of the Brazilian corn crop. The preliminary forecast by Brazil's national agricultural agency CONAB sees MY 2022-23 corn production at a record 125.5 million mt. Global corn exports that chiefly come from the US, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine have slowed down in 2022, hit by higher prices, lower supply, and a fall in demand from key consumer China.īrazil remains the only hope for corn buyers as the other three prominent exporters stare at falling output levels.īrazil does have the potential to deliver another record crop in MY 2022-23, but the question is if the weather gods would be kind enough. An extended period of war will likely see a reduction of 25 million mt corn from global trade flows, sources have said. In Ukraine, corn export and production capacity have been curtailed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Similarly, scorched by historic droughts in the EU, corn yields slumped and production in MY 2022-23 is estimated at 59.57 million mt, more than 18% lower on the year, data from the EU Crop Observatory showed. Dryness across parts of the country during the growing season has hit yield adversely. Output from key corn producer the US is estimated 8% lower on the year at 13.94 billion bushels (354.19 million mt) in marketing year 2022-23, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Do not duplicate in any form without permission of the Dallas Cowboys.Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.
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